Jack Chan’s Weekly Precious Metals Update

Source: Jack Chan for Streetwise Reports   02/20/2018

Technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest movements in the gold and silver markets.

Our proprietary cycle indicator is down.

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The gold sector is on a long-term buy signal. Long-term signals can last for months and years and are more suitable for investors holding for long term.

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The gold sector is on a short-term sell signal. Short-term signals can last for days and weeks, and are more suitable for traders.

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Speculation is in bull market values.

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This is a massive bottoming pattern four years in the making.

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Silver is on a long-term buy signal.

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SLV is on a short-term sell signal, and short-term signals can last for days to weeks, more suitable for traders.

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Data supports overall higher prices.

Summary
The precious metals sector is on a long-term buy signal. Short term is on sell signals; a pullback is in progress. The cycle is down. COT data is supportive for overall higher metal prices. We are holding gold-related ETFs for long-term gain.

Jack Chan is the editor of simply profits at www.simplyprofits.org, established in 2006. Chan bought his first mining stock, Hoko Exploration, in 1979, and has been active in the markets for the past 37 years. Technical analysis has helped him filter out the noise and focus on the when, and leave the why to the fundamental analysts. His proprietary trading models have enabled him to identify the NASDAQ top in 2000, the new gold bull market in 2001, the stock market top in 2007, and the U.S. dollar bottom in 2011.

Want to read more Gold Report articles like this? Sign up for our free e-newsletter, and you’ll learn when new articles have been published. To see a list of recent articles and interviews with industry analysts and commentators, visit our Streetwise Interviews page.

Disclosure:
1) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of Jack Chan and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. Jack Chan is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not involved in any aspect of the article preparation or editing so the author could speak independently about the sector. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports LLC for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article.
2) Jack Chan: We do not offer predictions or forecasts for the markets. What you see here is our simple trading model, which provides us the signals and set-ups to be either long, short, or in cash at any given time. Entry points and stops are provided in real time to subscribers, therefore, this update may not reflect our current positions in the markets. Trade at your own discretion. We also provide coverage to the major indexes and oil sector.
3) This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.

Charts courtesy of Jack Chan

from The Gold Report – Streetwise Exclusive Articles Full Text https://www.streetwisereports.com/article/2018/02/20/jack-chans-weekly-precious-metals-update-15.html

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Large Speculators and the House of Pain

Source: Michael J. Ballanger for Streetwise Reports   02/18/2018

Every bottom in gold is characterized by massive long liquidation by the Large Specs, precious metals analyst Michael Ballanger states.

This week’s COT report once again confirms that the Large Speculators are arguably the stupidest group of gold traders in existence. To be certain, as criminality is to the Commercials, brainlessness is to the Large Specs. They are constantly long massive positions at major turning points in gold and silver and are consistently on the wrong side of the trade. Pundits love to refer to the Small Speculators as “dumb retail” or the typically green, blindly optimistic newcomer piling into gold futures after receiving an e-blast from one of the blogs praising the regenerative powers of gold and silver. However, I have been watching the Small Specs for a while now and they have actually been on the right side far more often, but without question, residing forever and a day in the House of Pain, are the Large Specs. The last two COT reports illustrate this point perfectly but first take a peek at the last 30 days of gold trading.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&i=p17397720201&a=578465924&r=1518967081845

You can see how the gold market traded down in the two COT weeks ended February 6 and 13 amidst massive liquidation by the large speculators.

Now observe the massive liquidation of all of those positions bought in late January as high as $1,370 as the blogger world chortled and chimed “$1,360 breakout!!!” Recalling “MJB Rule 1 of Gold Trading,” what is it that we do when an obvious technical support or resistance level is taken out? Why, we go the other way of course! You SELL “breakouts” and you BUY “breakdowns” because of one resounding theme: THE GOLD MARKET IS RIGGED. 31,656 contracts were purged from the Large Spec portfolios representing 3,165,600 ounces of gold with a notional value (assuming average liquidation price of $1,315) of $4,162,764,000. Forget about the cretins on the other side of those comedic capitulations; we KNOW all about the machinations of the Commercials. What slays me, though, is just how much money is lost and how it happens literally four or five times a year but what is unmistakeable is that every bottom in gold is characterized by massive long liquidation by the Large Specs.

Last week I was feeling pretty much vindicated as the UVXY (ProShares Trust Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures EFT) got hammered back down into the mid-teens from my exit points at $23-25 after a brief stint above $30, as the panic of early February was replaced by the solace and certainty of plunge protection. Massaged back under $10 by the serial interventionalists and master manipulators manning the trading desks of the government-sponsored agencies around the planet, you want to avoid this vehicle for another few weeks as you can pretty much assume that the big boys will resume their volatility-suppressing antics if for no other reason than to teach the latecomers a painful lesson or how “past performance is no guarantee of future profit.” Delving into Barron’s “Market Lab” this weekend, I noticed that the American Association of Individual Investors sentiment index went from 44.8% bulls the week before the meltdown to 37% bulls during the meltdown and right back to 48.5% bulls this past week, rendering sentiment to where nothing about the 10% one-week plunge mattered. Rising yields, hot CPI, heightened volatility—mattered not as we head into the final stretch of winter, which is exactly what I wrote last week about the market heading right back up to test or exceed the highs by the end of May.

Market Sentiment

You can see how quickly market sentiment exited the “Euphoria” levels from late January, but it is still way above the levels seen last summer when the reading was a hair above “Panic.”

I was also feeling pretty cocky that the JNUG (Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Bull 3X ETF), which I grabbed at $13.35 two Fridays ago, was powering above $16 after a two-day dip to $11.34 but once again, late-Friday goofiness took gold down below $1,350 again and the Gold Miners threw a tantrum with the HUI (NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index) off 2.33% on the day alone. Nevertheless, I continue to be a buyer of any and all dips in the physical metals and always have to remind myself just how much of a move would be required to get to “all-time highs,” a phrase we have had to listen to for most of the past 15 months for every asset class EXCEPT gold.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24HUI&p=M&st=2006-01-02&i=p15827436030&a=578474102&r=1518970073494

People tend to forget just how far down the Gold Miners have fallen since the highs of 2011 but when you look at how pathetic they have been managed over the years, you have to wonder why anyone would buy them. Look at Barrick’s Pascua Lama project where they have written down U.S.$429 million because they broke every rule in the book muscling their way into water rights, environmental breaches, and incompetent execution. There are times when I wish they would exclude ABX from the Gold Miner Indices altogether and let the well-run smaller companies like Eldorado and AngloGold carry the water.

It might also be nicely refreshing to see one of the major mining companies actually join into the lawsuits of bullion banks such as Scotiabank, HSBC, Deutsche Bank, UBS and Barclay’s but since they just never know when they might need one of them to either lend them some money or head up a financing, they just stick their heads in the sand while the product they search for, produce and sell gets suppressed, injuring all of their shareholders on a daily basis.

We head into what is ostensibly the final week of February with the arrival of Spring a mere thirty-one days away. With this weekend’s “Up and Down Wall Street” entitled “The Ghost of Inflation Reappears,” Barron’s Randall Forsyth does a pretty good job in accidentally removing inflation fears as a potential stock market land mine because, as you all know, when something becomes a headline in Barron’s, it is, by the time of arrival, obsolete. Mind you, it wasn’t the cover story so perhaps it will resurface later in the Spring when the CPI detonator really gets flipped.

I am not going to make any dire predictions as to the vibrancy of the current stock market rebound but based upon the behavior of the market last Monday and Tuesday, I am convinced that the-powers-that-be were hell-bent to avoid a full-on technical breakdown. The orchestrated rebound after the S&P knifed down through the 200-dma at 2,540 was classic PPT so anyone wondering whether or not the central planners had cut the umbilical cord found out on the last trading day of the week that the serial interventionalists had not yet left the equity market building. However, they are sticking a microscopic pin into the bubble so as to allow a slow leak as opposed to a “POP” and that, I contend, will be the continuing mantra for the balance of 2018.

I had a call from a buddy who is getting killed on his “Short Euro, Short Yen” strategy, which he executed on the assumption that like all other financial crises, the USD would rally in response to either higher rates (which we have) and/or safe haven buying. The problem with that is when you are the largest debtor nation on the globe, rising interest rates challenge the viability of your currency because of DEBT. The U.S. dollar is no longer the safe haven; it is now the Achilles Heel of the global economic reflation—and I didn’t write “recovery” or “expansion” or “boom”—further cementing my belief that what worked from 2009 until 2017 will not work in 2018 and beyond. The game has changed, the tide has turned, and formerly successful investment tactics will need to be replaced.

The sooner, the better.

Originally trained during the inflationary 1970s, Michael Ballanger is a graduate of Saint Louis University where he earned a Bachelor of Science in finance and a Bachelor of Art in marketing before completing post-graduate work at the Wharton School of Finance. With more than 30 years of experience as a junior mining and exploration specialist, as well as a solid background in corporate finance, Ballanger’s adherence to the concept of “Hard Assets” allows him to focus the practice on selecting opportunities in the global resource sector with emphasis on the precious metals exploration and development sector. Ballanger takes great pleasure in visiting mineral properties around the globe in the never-ending hunt for early-stage opportunities.

Want to read more Gold Report interviews like this? Sign up for our free e-newsletter, and you’ll learn when new articles have been published. To see a list of recent interviews with industry analysts and commentators, visit our Streetwise Interviews page.

Disclosure:
1) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of Michael Ballanger and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. Michael Ballanger is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not involved in any aspect of the article preparation. Michael Ballanger was not paid by Streetwise Reports LLC for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article.
2) This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.
3) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the interview or the decision to write an article, until one week after the publication of the interview or article.

Charts and images courtesy of Michael Ballanger.

Michael Ballanger Disclaimer:
This letter makes no guarantee or warranty on the accuracy or completeness of the data provided. Nothing contained herein is intended or shall be deemed to be investment advice, implied or otherwise. This letter represents my views and replicates trades that I am making but nothing more than that. Always consult your registered advisor to assist you with your investments. I accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of the data contained on this letter. Options and junior mining stocks contain a high level of risk that may result in the loss of part or all invested capital and therefore are suitable for experienced and professional investors and traders only. One should be familiar with the risks involved in junior mining and options trading and we recommend consulting a financial adviser if you feel you do not understand the risks involved.

from The Gold Report – Streetwise Exclusive Articles Full Text https://www.streetwisereports.com/article/2018/02/18/large-speculators-and-the-house-of-pain.html

Silver is ‘Off the Radar’ But Shouldn’t Be

Source: Clive Maund for Streetwise Reports   02/18/2018

Silver has zero appeal for momentum traders now, but technical analyst Clive Maund believes that is going to change.

Silver is completely “off the radar” for most investors right now, which is just the way we like it when we are buying, however, as we will see, there are good reasons to believe that this will not be the case for much longer.

On its latest 8-year chart we can see why silver has zero appeal for momentum traders now—it ain’t goin’ nowhere, or so it would seem, if you project past performance into the future, but as we have repeatedly observed in recent months, it is marking out a giant Head-and-Shoulders bottom, which is quite heavily disguised compared to the concurrent flat topped H&S bottom forming in gold, because it is downsloping. A key bullish point to observe on this chart is the steady volume buildup over the past two years, which is a sign that it is building up to a major bull market. This hasn’t had much effect on volume indicators so far, but such is not the case with gold, where a more marked volume buildup has driven volume indicators strongly higher so that they recently made new highs, which bodes well not just for gold, but obviously for silver, too.

Moving on to observe recent action in more detail on the 6-month chart, we see that silver dropped back further than predicted in the last update, which is hardly surprising considering what happened to the broad stock market. No technical damage was incurred, however, and it has already clawed back a part of the loss. What now?—like gold, silver may drop back again short-term on another modest dollar rally, which appeared to have started on Friday, and any such drop will be viewed as presenting another opportunity to accumulate more silver and silver related investments, especially given silver’s latest COTs, which are “flat-out bullish” as we will now proceed to see.

The latest COTs show that the Large Specs have “thrown in the towel” on silver and gone home—great!—that’s what we like to see. This extremely low level of Large Spec long positions is very bullish indeed for silver and also implies that gold could soon rally too, despite its COTs not being so positive, although as mentioned above both metals are likely to have to weather a modest dollar rally first.

Click on chart to pop-up a larger, clearer version.

In summary, whilst a minor short-term dip on a modest dollar rally looks likely, silver’s chart are very bullish overall as it appears to be readying to break out of it giant Head-and-Shoulders bottom. Any near-term weakness will therefore be viewed as presenting an excellent and possibly final chance to accumulate silver and especially silver stocks at very low prices ahead of major sectorwide bull market commencing.

Clive Maund has been president of http://www.clivemaund.com, a successful resource sector website, since its inception in 2003. He has 30 years’ experience in technical analysis and has worked for banks, commodity brokers and stockbrokers in the City of London. He holds a Diploma in Technical Analysis from the UK Society of Technical Analysts.

Want to read more Gold Report articles like this? Sign up for our free e-newsletter, and you’ll learn when new articles have been published. To see a list of recent articles and interviews with industry analysts and commentators, visit our Streetwise Interviews page.

Disclosure:
1) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of Clive Maund and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. Clive Maund is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not involved in the content preparation. Clive Maund was not paid by Streetwise Reports LLC for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article.
2) This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.

Charts provided by the author.

CliveMaund.com Disclosure:
The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maund’s opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. Mr. Maund is an independent analyst who receives no compensation of any kind from any groups, individuals or corporations mentioned in his reports. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications. Although a qualified and experienced stockmarket analyst, Clive Maund is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Therefore Mr. Maund’s opinions on the market and stocks can only be construed as a solicitation to buy and sell securities when they are subject to the prior approval and endorsement of a Registered Securities Advisor operating in accordance with the appropriate regulations in your area of jurisdiction.

from The Gold Report – Streetwise Exclusive Articles Full Text https://www.streetwisereports.com/article/2018/02/18/silver-is-off-the-radar-but-shouldnt-be.html

Is a New Gold Bull Market on the Horizon?

Source: Clive Maund for Streetwise Reports   02/18/2018

A read of the gold charts is indicating that a breakout and new bull market are simply a matter of time, says technical analyst Clive Maund.

Gold continues to prepare to break out of its giant Head-and-Shoulders bottom pattern. As we can see on its 8-year chart below, this base pattern has been developing for getting on for five years now, so it has major implications. Upside volume has been building for a long time, driving volume indicators higher, a sign that a breakout and new bull market are simply a matter of time, and not much at that now.

There has been much grumbling and muttering within the gold community about how “The Cartel” and the Comex etc are holding the gold price in restraint by means of naked short selling, and hitting the market with supply when trading is thin during public holidays and overnight and so on, but the fact of the matter is that the reason why the Precious Metals sector has taken a back seat for years now is that there have been hotter games in town, like Biotech, Bitcoin, Cannabis, the FANGS, Tech generally, etc. and endless quantities of cheap money to bid them up into the stratosphere. So that is where the action has been. However, to everything its season and all that is coming to an end now, and the recent plunge in the stock market was a “shot across the bows” to all who would heed it, indicating that a new bear market is starting, but don’t go telling that to the buy the dip crowd.

Gold does well and has its best bull markets when stocks generally are in a bear market, so don’t get fooled by PM stocks falling with the stock market at this time—that won’t last. Thus it is worth observing that gold has outperformed stocks during the period since the stock market plunge started—it is back where it was before the plunge, which is more than can be said for stocks.

Before looking at gold’s shorter term 6-month chart, it is worth taking a quick detour to see how it is getting on against some other currencies. Over the past year or so the dollar has dropped quite hard, with the prime beneficiary of this drop being the euro, which has risen substantially. Therefore we should not be surprised to see that gold has dropped against the euro during this same period. What is interesting to observe on the 8-year chart for gold in euros, however, is that it has arrived at the lower boundary of a large uptrend that has turned the price back up on two occasions already. This suggests that gold is going to rise even in euros, and since the dollar is expected to continue to drop, regardless of any brief countertrend rally, it means that it should rise faster still against the dollar, which of course is what we would expect to see once it breaks out of its Head-and-Shoulders bottom shown on its normal dollar chart. Before leaving this chart observe how gold is not all that far off making new highs against the yen, shown at the bottom of the chart.

Turning now to the latest COT chart, the Large Specs high long positions are a factor that prompted us to look for a reaction in gold in the last update several weeks back. Readings have eased significantly since, although they are in middling ground and still far from levels that could be described as emphatically bullish. Such is not the case with silver, however—silver’s latest COT is flat out bullish, so it could be that silver rallies and gold comes along for the ride, and gold’s COTs do show that there is sufficient leeway for this to happen.

Click on chart to pop-up a larger, clearer version.

The latest 6-month chart shows that gold reacted just as we expected it to in the last update, back close to its rising 50-day moving average, and the good news is that, as we can see, it has already gotten back to where it was before the stockmarket plunge, an early sign of the outperformance to come. Right now, with the dollar having turned up from support again on Friday and looking set to stage a modest rally, gold looks set to react back again from the resistance shown towards the support once more, which should throw up another opportunity to accumulate the better PM stocks, and they have already started to drop back again.

Now we’ll look at several charts for PM stocks, as represented by the proxy Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF, GDX. Starting with the 8-year chart we see that it has marked out a giant Head-and-Shoulders bottom pattern that parallels the one in gold itself, but there is one big difference—GDX is much closer to the Right Shoulder low of its H&S bottom than gold itself is, so you could say that gold stocks are better value here, as even a rise by GDX just to the neckline of its H&S bottom would result in big gains in many stocks.

The 2-year chart for GDX puts the recent drop in sympathy with the broad market into perspective. On this chart it looks like “a storm in a teacup”—it didn’t breach the strong support shown and downside momentum, as shown by the MACD, was not all that great.

The 6-month chart for GDX shows that investors were freaked out by the plunge in the broad stockmarket and dumped PM stocks over the side too. This is normal in the early panic stages of broad market bearmarkets, but eases as the bearmarket becomes more established and the PM sector is increasingly seen as a safe haven. As with mainstream stocks, GDX recouped about 50% of its losses during the plunge, which we correctly anticipated in THE MAGNIFICENT DRAGONFLY DOJI REVERSAL CANDLE IN GDX, and is now turning lower again due to the dollar starting higher.

Now we move on to consider the dollar, as ever crucial in our calculations. As pointed out in the last update, the dollar has broken down from a giant Broadening Top, an ominous development, as we can see on the latest 8-year chart for the dollar index below, and now looks set to drop to a minimum target in the 80 area, notwithstanding any short-term rallies to near the breakdown point at the lower boundary of the top pattern.

Finally on the 3-month chart for the dollar index we can see how it rallied back to the lower boundary of the Broadening Top, as predicted in the last update, although it got a little higher than we expected and got there a little later, and then backed off again, also as predicted. Now, with a bullish candle forming on Friday, it looks like it is going to have another go at it, although this time the rally is expected to fail at a lower level. This would correspond with the minor reaction now expected across the PM sector that will throw up another buying opportunity.

On clivemaund.com we have had a string of outstanding successes in recent months that have made—or saved—subscribers a lot of money. These include calling the top in Bitcoin 3 days before it in BITCOIN TOTAL WIPEOUT ALERT and a day after it in The Bitcoin Market would like to thank The Greatest Fool, calling the top for the cannabis sector ramp late last year in CANNABIS SECTOR URGENT UPDATE within 3 days of it, defining the sell signal on the broad US stockmarket meltup 1 day before it was triggered in BROAD US STOCKMARKET MELTUP update – HOW TO PINPOINT THE FINAL TOP, calling the plunge in the oil price in OIL SET TO TANK, calling the bottom of the recent stockmarket plunge in MOM & POP GET LYNCHED, calling the recent bottom in the PM sector in THE MAGNIFICENT DRAGONFLY DOJI REVERSAL CANDLE IN GDX and a number of associated perfect or near perfectly timed trades such as PotNetwork Holdings bought on 28th December right before it took off like a rocket, Freedom Leaf just before a really big upleg, the USO Put trades recommended in OIL SET TO TANK and sold less than a week later for 5 and 6 times gain as set out in Review of our MASSIVELY PROFITABLE USO PUT TRADE and many less dramatic but profitable trades.

Many new subscribers have made back the cost of a subscription within a few weeks and often in a matter of days. So if you are not already a subscriber you should “put your best foot forward” and become one—don’t do it to help me out—you owe it to yourself.

Clive Maund has been president of http://www.clivemaund.com, a successful resource sector website, since its inception in 2003. He has 30 years’ experience in technical analysis and has worked for banks, commodity brokers and stockbrokers in the City of London. He holds a Diploma in Technical Analysis from the UK Society of Technical Analysts.

Want to read more Gold Report articles like this? Sign up for our free e-newsletter, and you’ll learn when new articles have been published. To see a list of recent articles and interviews with industry analysts and commentators, visit our Streetwise Interviews page.

Disclosure:
1) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of Clive Maund and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. Clive Maund is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not involved in the content preparation. Clive Maund was not paid by Streetwise Reports LLC for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article.
2) This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.

Charts provided by the author.

CliveMaund.com Disclosure:
The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maund’s opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. Mr. Maund is an independent analyst who receives no compensation of any kind from any groups, individuals or corporations mentioned in his reports. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications. Although a qualified and experienced stockmarket analyst, Clive Maund is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Therefore Mr. Maund’s opinions on the market and stocks can only be construed as a solicitation to buy and sell securities when they are subject to the prior approval and endorsement of a Registered Securities Advisor operating in accordance with the appropriate regulations in your area of jurisdiction.

from The Gold Report – Streetwise Exclusive Articles Full Text https://www.streetwisereports.com/article/2018/02/18/is-a-new-gold-bull-market-on-the-horizon.html

What the Markets Have in Common with the Film ‘Casablanca’

Source: Michael Ballanger for Streetwise Reports   02/17/2018

Technical expert Michael Ballanger discusses current market fluctuations and the gold and silver markets.

As I watched Wednesday’s CPI (inflation) number reported by the Commerce Department, I was immediately reminded of that classic scene from legendary WWII flick “Casablanca,” where Claude Rains, playing police Captain Renault, shuts down Humphrey Bogart’s casino/nightclub with the immortal words, “I shocked—SHOCKED—to find out that gambling is going on in here!” The croupier hands him a wad of bills—”Your winnings, sir”—to which he says, “Oh thank you very much. Now everyone out of here!”

Well, I was shocked—SHOCKED, I tell you—to see that the U.S. inflation numbers came in a tad “hot.” After all, the Fed has added some $5 trillion in additional “assets” to its balance sheet since 2008 and encouraged its foreign central bank cousins to do the same, which they have done with even greater enthusiasm. The movement toward serial currency-trashing has had us all awaiting the inevitable return of 1970s-style inflation, but thanks to the creative accounting and fictitious reporting, inflation is seen as “tame” by mostly everyone—but especially the financial media and “bond-badeers.”

The U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio has been increasing every year since 1980 with only a brief respite during the tech boom of the late ’90s, and that has been a global theme of commonality as fiscal recklessness became the clarion call for Baby Boomers the world over. Nearly 10 years of financial repression has finally lifted as bond yields are rising to levels never quite seen by the legions of Millennials now trading for their livelihoods.

debtgdp2-16

The expansion of the Fed balance sheet has long been a source of fascination for me as I could never understand how any entity owned by its members (which are banks that are required to keep a minimum of reserves on hand and must report financial positions) could be allowed to buy trillions of dollars of toxic paper from its members in order for those members to avoid bankruptcy—and then report those noxious purchases as “assets” that remain on the books at book value. If they were threatening to sink the member banks, how can they be booked at face value or par? Should the Fed not report them as “non-performing loans,” leaving a large hole in that balance sheet? Should the Fed, which is not a part of the U.S. government, not be audited, as are its members (“owners”)? Why can the Fed buy, sell, and short (think volatility and gold) infinite amounts of anything and everything without ever getting a margin call? Are you not shocked—SHOCKED—that the Captain Renault of bond vigilante-ism isn’t closing down that casino?

assets2-16

Stocks caught an enormous bid this past week after the ice-water wake-up call of the previous week, but as I wrote about in last week’s missive, you would have to be a complete fool to think that there would not be a “response” from 33 Liberty (NY Fed) and from the various serial interveners around the world. The volatility we saw last week spooked the politico-banker elite to the extent that we immediately witnessed dramatic moves to suppress the sudden and violent short covering in the VIX derivatives attached to equity market volatility. The 1,500-point swings in the Dow Jones were moved upon quickly, and by Monday afternoon, the “Buy-the-Dippers” had absorbed literally all of the panicky supply and voila! The Dow Jones now resides some 1,500 points off the lows and about 1,500 points from the all-time high. You see, everyone now agrees that one must never, ever underestimate the replacement power of stocks in a (hyper) inflationary spiral. So a “hot CPI” is bullish as hell, right?

spx2-16

uvxy2-16

Platitudes aside, I want to put to rest any notions that I have changed my opinion in any way on gold and silver looking out to the balance of 2018. Just to review, in late January I posted the chart shown below and made the case that no matter what the bloggers will tell you, the miners have a history of getting sold when the RSI moves above 70. The high for the December-January rally for NUGT was $37.96; the sell point for me was $35.80. The low print last Friday was $21.40; my entry was $23.80.

One week ago, I was a buyer of the leveraged Junior Miner ETF (JNUG) at $13.35 (20%) and watched it crater to $11.34, creating all sorts of problems for canine pets, adoring spouses, FedEx delivery personnel, and call-center employees. In dealing with issues related to “poor trading,” I often times get caught up in semi-violent mood swings resulting in harsh responses to challenges such as overly-bound, impossible-to-open FedEx packages and overly-polite, impossible-to-understand bank support staff.

Owing these emotional whipsaws to my way-too-early JNUG entry, all around me had to suffer until the past couple of days, because today NUGT closed at $28.91 and the JNUG at $15.91. Needless to say, calm has now returned to the household as the miners are hitting on all cylinders; the metals are again firming up, and Fido has returned from under the toolshed.

nugt2-16

I eagerly anticipate results from Stakeholder Gold Corp.’s (SRC:TSX.V) Goldstorm project, where the first hole in a 10-hole project has been drilled to an elevation of just above the water table at 6,000 feet (above sea level). Fingers and toes are crossed but since the shares have now pulled back from the $13M to $8M of market cap last week during the meltdown, there is no longer any speculative anticipation built into the share price. The company is spending $$2.5M over the next three years to earn 100%, so there is a lot of drilling ahead. And with such a big land position tied on Seabridge Gold Inc.’s (SEA:TSX; SA:NYSE.MKT) Snowstorm Project, 2018 will be an active exploration year for the area.

As this is being finished, gold is trading up through $1,360 again, but once again silver is lagging, taking the silver:gold ratio to 80.71. Hard to believe that in 2001, I was buying silver in the $4.00 range at the same ratio to gold—10 years later, it was at $50.

By the way, remember that package that was driving me crazy on Wednesday with industrial-strength packing tape resisting my sharpest box cutters? It was the most beautiful set of five 100-ounce silver bars from the Royal Canadian Mint. My money resides resolutely in the vicinity of my mouth.

Originally trained during the inflationary 1970s, Michael Ballanger is a graduate of Saint Louis University where he earned a Bachelor of Science in finance and a Bachelor of Art in marketing before completing post-graduate work at the Wharton School of Finance. With more than 30 years of experience as a junior mining and exploration specialist, as well as a solid background in corporate finance, Ballanger’s adherence to the concept of “Hard Assets” allows him to focus the practice on selecting opportunities in the global resource sector with emphasis on the precious metals exploration and development sector. Ballanger takes great pleasure in visiting mineral properties around the globe in the never-ending hunt for early-stage opportunities.

Want to read more Gold Report interviews like this? Sign up for our free e-newsletter, and you’ll learn when new articles have been published. To see a list of recent interviews with industry analysts and commentators, visit our Streetwise Interviews page.

Disclosure:
1) Michael J. Ballanger: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own shares of the following companies mentioned in this article: Stakeholder Gold Corp. I personally am, or members of my immediate household or family are, paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None. My company has a financial relationship with the following companies referred to in this article: Stakeholder Gold Corporation. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector. Additional disclosures are below.
2) The following companies mentioned in this article are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: Seabridge Gold. Streetwise Reports does not accept stock in exchange for its services. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
3) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
4) This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.
5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the interview or the decision to write an article, until one week after the publication of the interview or article. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Stakeholder Gold, a company mentioned in this article.

All charts and images courtesy of Michael Ballanger.

Michael Ballanger Disclaimer:

This letter makes no guarantee or warranty on the accuracy or completeness of the data provided. Nothing contained herein is intended or shall be deemed to be investment advice, implied or otherwise. This letter represents my views and replicates trades that I am making but nothing more than that. Always consult your registered advisor to assist you with your investments. I accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of the data contained on this letter. Options and junior mining stocks contain a high level of risk that may result in the loss of part or all invested capital and therefore are suitable for experienced and professional investors and traders only. One should be familiar with the risks involved in junior mining and options trading and we recommend consulting a financial adviser if you feel you do not understand the risks involved.

( Companies Mentioned: SRC:TSX.V,
)

from The Gold Report – Streetwise Exclusive Articles Full Text https://www.streetwisereports.com/article/2018/02/17/what-the-markets-have-in-common-with-the-film-casablanca.html

Bayhorse Silver Produces Silver

Source: Bob Moriarty for Streetwise Reports   02/16/2018

Bob Moriarty of 321 Gold recommends doing the math to profit from silver, and describes a silver miner he believes is “on to something.”

For all the braying of donkeys on the web of whatever size and flavor, the fact remains that at any given day and time no one knows what the correct price for silver or gold might be.

Is $1,360 the right price for gold and $16.51 the right price for silver? Is $50,000 right for gold and $2,000 for silver? Is gold really worth only $750 or will it become worthless, as John McAfee said recently in December just before nailing the very top in “Bitcon”?

We just don’t know and investors are being forced into listening to whatever guru does the best job of fulfilling their fantasies.

There actually is a far easier and more profitable way to make money. In reality I suppose it’s the only way to make money. If you notice carefully, of the dozens of resource websites, how many of them actually give you information you can profit on? For all the whining of jackasses, how often do they give you signal rather than noise?

I discovered something that works well for me. I wrote about it in Nobody Knows Anything.

You should buy cheap and sell dear.

That’s so simple it confuses people. It’s simple, but not easy.

As I write, gold is quoted at $1,360.70, silver at $16.89. It was different yesterday and will change again on Monday because everyone else is as clueless about the correct price as you and I are. But.

But.

If we ignore the dollar and take it out of the equation entirely, we can price gold in terms of silver and perhaps that will give us an idea of what is cheap and what is expensive. If we bother to do the math, right now, it takes 80.56 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold. However, we still don’t know what is cheap and what is expensive.

So we do a tiny bit of research on our own since we are the people who profit from our wise investments. We learn that in the last 150 years, the ratio of silver to gold has varied from about 16–1 to 100–1. And we can presume that unless aliens land tomorrow in ships made of pure gold, for the immediate future the silver-to-gold ratio would be in that 16–1 to 100–1 range. So simple math shows us that right now silver is cheap relative to gold and gold is expensive relative to silver.

That’s a signal, not noise. There is a difference.

If we take it a little further we can see that relative to real estate, the stock market and works of art, commodities in general are cheap. So we buy what are cheap—commodities—and within commodities we buy what is cheap: silver.

I like both silver and platinum right now because commodities are at a 5,000-year low relative to about everything. I don’t want to be sitting in paper assets that are about to fly off to Bitcon heaven as $500 billion did since mid-December. I want to own something real or a fractional ownership of a company producing something real.

Bayhorse Silver Inc. (BHS:TSX.V) may well fit the bill.

I say that mining is the art and science of extracting minerals from the ground at a profit. Mining is not poking a bunch of holes in the ground until a project looks like a giant Swiss cheese. Counting ounces is not mining: It may eventually contribute to profit but for the most part, counting ounces is an expense.

Bayhorse Silver is in production at the 100%-owned Bayhorse Mine. Owning a mine in Oregon created its own set of problems. Oregon isn’t against mining per say, but they are against processing that ore. So Bayhorse did a couple of thing outside the box. They aren’t drilling until the cows come home. The production decision was based on a Herdrick 1981 technical report showing about 3 million ounces of high-grade silver and 1.2 million ounces of lower grade material. There is no feasibility study and they smile as they say they don’t need one while recognizing the lack of a feasibility study adds risks while saving loads of money.

CEO Graeme O’Neill is using the “by guess and by golly” mining technique. The Spanish and Romans didn’t need an NI 43-101, yet today the industry pretends that adding reams of paperwork to a mining project somehow reduces risk.

How remarkable is that? Until you can figure out a way to eliminate human stupidity mining companies will fail on a regular basis no matter how many tons of paper were generated in government required reports.

Graeme O’Neill realized that if the grade is high enough, you could make a whole lot of mistakes and still make money. And obviously wasting billions of dollars drilling useless holes has put more juniors out of business than a lack of ore. He also recognized that if the rules in Oregon wouldn’t allow process within the state, shipping costs to more mining friendly states would be key.

He did a lot of research and concluded that if they brought in a Steinert ore sorting machine from Germany they could raise the average grade of the ore from 17/20 opt (ounces per ton) to 150/160 opt, making shipping costs reasonable.

I love it. He’s guessing they will produce about 640,000 to 1,280,000 ounces of silver this year. I’m so sick of guys presenting me formal 43-101-blessed numbers and promptly blowing up their companies.

Life is a risk. Most people will end up dying in bed, so if you do the math, it seems to make sense to avoid going to bed so you can reduce the risk of dying.

What’s wrong with guessing what your production will be? If Graeme is wrong we can always hang him from the nearest yardarm.

The silver industry is filled with some idiots talking about how silver is the most valuable war material, and if the U.S. ever got into a war, silver would rocket to between $50 and $100 an ounce. We know exactly how that worked out. At one time, under Nobel Peace Prize winner Obama, the U.S. had seven wars going on at one time. According to my Bomar Brain, that means silver should have gone up to somewhere between $350 and $700 an ounce. All by itself.

One of the few silver bugs with any sense is David Morgan. He did an interview with O’Neill that you should listen to. There is a boatload of blue sky potential for a lot more ounces. I think Bayhorse is on to something. I like good guesses.

Bayhorse also has a major project or set of projects in the Silver Valley in Idaho. The company has about 1.6 million warrants in the money that would bring in another $1.2 million, so I think they are fine for cash for now. And there are another 5 million warrants at $0.25, and the stock price isn’t far off that now.

I like the company a lot. I happen to believe that silver is cheap compared to about everything else. When the Everything Bubble bursts—and it looks as if it has started—silver might be valuable to have around.

I really like asking the accountant what the grade of ore is and how much money we can make mining and processing it. That’s the way it worked for a couple of thousands of years with great success.

I don’t own Bayhorse but I am biased a lot. They are an advertiser. They do an excellent job of telling their story and I believe will be very successful. With a $10 million USD market cap, I think they are cheap.

Bayhorse Silver
$0.20 (Feb 15, 2018)
KXPLF-OTCBB 65 million shares
Bayhorse Silver website

Bob and Barb Moriarty brought 321gold.com to the Internet almost 16 years ago. They later added 321energy.com to cover oil, natural gas, gasoline, coal, solar, wind and nuclear energy. Both sites feature articles, editorial opinions, pricing figures and updates on current events affecting both sectors. Previously, Moriarty was a Marine F-4B and O-1 pilot with more than 832 missions in Vietnam. He holds 14 international aviation records.

Want to read more Gold Report articles like this? Sign up for our free e-newsletter, and you’ll learn when new articles have been published. To see a list of recent articles and interviews with industry analysts and commentators, visit our Streetwise Interviews page.

Disclosure:
1) Bob Moriarty: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own shares of the following companies mentioned in this article: None. Bayhorse Silver is an advertiser on 321 Gold. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
2) The following companies mentioned are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: None. Streetwise Reports does not accept stock in exchange for its services. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees.
3) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
4) The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.
5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the interview or the decision to write an article, until one week after the publication of the interview or article.

( Companies Mentioned: BHS:TSX.V,
)

from The Gold Report – Streetwise Exclusive Articles Full Text https://www.streetwisereports.com/article/2018/02/16/bayhorse-silver-produces-silver.html

Gold Miner Boosts Reserves by 86% Year Over Year

Source: Streetwise Reports   02/15/2018

BMO Capital Markets analyst Andrew Kaip shared the highlights of this company’s recently reported mineral reserves.

In a Feb. 12, 2018, research note titled “2017: A Year of Reserve Growth,” Andrew Kaip, an analyst with BMO Capital Markets, reported that Canada-based IAMGOLD Corp. (IMG:TSX; IAG:NYSE) released a reserves update. The mining company’s new numbers reflect an 86% year-over-year increase to 14.5 million ounces (14.5 Moz) of gold from 7.8 Moz of gold, assuming a price for the metal of $1,200 an ounce. The total encompasses an additional 3.8 Moz at Cote, 1.5 Moz at Rosebel and 1.4 Moz at Boto.

Measured and Indicated resources grew 6% to 24.7 Moz gold. Inferred resources expanded 44% to 8.8 Moz gold.

As for reserve grades, they generally were up at Sadiola but “down marginally” at Rosebel and Essakane,” Kaip indicated. At Westwood specifically, reserve grade dropped 13% to 7.7 grams per ton gold, which is “more realistic given mine grades continue to be below reserve grade.”

The analyst also noted the results of the recent prefeasibility study done on the Boto project. It shows an after-tax internal rate of return of 13.3% and a net present value 6% of $104 million ($104M). Based on a 1.4 Moz reserve, production is an estimated 100,000 ounces of gold per annum for 13.5 years. Capital costs are an estimated $249M. All-in-sustaining costs are expected to be $829 per ounce for the life of mine. Kaip added that these numbers “have yet to meet IAMGOLD’s investment threshold.”

To bolster project economics, the company is pursuing a feasibility study for Boto that will consider a 25% throughput increase.

BMO Capital has an Outperform rating and a $7 per share price target on IAMGOLD, whose stock is currently trading at around $6.02 per share.

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Disclosure:
1) Doresa Banning compiled this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an independent contractor. She or members of her household own securities of the following companies mentioned in the article: None. She or members of her household are paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None.
2) The following companies mentioned in this article are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: None. Streetwise Reports does not accept stock in exchange for its services. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees.
3) Comments and opinions expressed are those of the specific experts and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
4) The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.
5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the interview or the decision to write an article, until one week after the publication of the interview or article.

Disclosures from BMO Capital Markets, IAMGOLD, Feb. 12, 2018

Analyst’s Certification: I, Andrew Kaip, hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or issuers. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Analysts who prepared this report are compensated based upon (among other factors) the overall profitability of BMO Capital Markets and their affiliates, which includes the overall profitability of investment banking services. Compensation for research is based on effectiveness in generating new ideas and in communication of ideas to clients, performance of recommendations, accuracy of earnings estimates, and service to clients.

Analysts employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. and/or BMO Capital Markets Limited are not registered as research analysts with FINRA. These analysts may not be associated persons of BMO Capital Markets Corp. and therefore may not be subject to the FINRA Rule 2241 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

Company Specific Disclosures

Disclosure 8A: BMO Capital Markets or an affiliate has a financial interest in 1% or more of any class of the equity securities of IAMGOLD.

Disclosure 8C: BMO Capital Markets or an affiliate has a financial interest in 0.5% or more in the issued share capital of IAMGOLD.

Disclosure 9: BMO Capital Markets makes a market in IAMGOLD.

Disclosure 16: A BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. research analyst has extensively viewed the material operations of IAMGOLD.

Disclosure 17: IAMGOLD has paid or reimbursed some or all of the BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. analysts travel expenses.

( Companies Mentioned: IMG:TSX; IAG:NYSE,
)

from The Gold Report – Streetwise Exclusive Articles Full Text https://www.streetwisereports.com/article/2018/02/15/gold-miner-boosts-reserves-by-86-year-over-year.html